By Casey O'Connor
1. Saddle cloth numbers: Nos.4 and 12 have both had 11 wins. No.1 has 10, No.8 has eight and No.11 has had seven wins.
2. Barrier Draw: Horses in barriers nine to 12 have had five wins in the past 13 years. First run in 1866, barrier 18 is still waiting produce the Cup winner.
3. Age: Four and five-year-old horses have won the cup 93 times. Eleven of the past 12 cups have been won by horses aged either four, five or six. Almandin the exception when he won in 2016 as a seven year old.
4. Boys v Girls: Overall, stallions or geldings have won it 69 times but the mighty mare Makybe Diva holds the record of three consecutive wins.
5. Weight Matters: Horses carrying 54.5kg (eight wins) have the best winning record in the Cup followed by 52.5kg (seven) and 53kg (seven).
6. Colour me black and blue: Jockey’s silks including predominantly royal blue or navy blue have won the Cup 1p times while black hasn’t fared too bad either with 17 wins (but not recently).
7. Taking the odds: Odds of 10-1 appear to be most successful (15 wins) and 8-1 13 wins. Favourites have a poor recent record unless you are a bookmaker.
If you can compute all those stats and you’re looking for a 10-1, four or five-year-of this you should be looking for a horse (a good start) weighted at 54kg and carrying either blue or black silks and definitely not jumping from barrier 18.
If that has you even more confused try the pin trick – works well for many. Good luck and good punting.
Casey’s Top Melbourne Cup (fancies ignoring all of the above):-
Vow and Declare; Mustajeeb; Marmelo and Hunting Horn